Disclaimer

Disclaimer: I started this blog as a personal diary or private trading journal to record my personal observations & predictions  in order to test & refine my  understanding of market behaviour.  I later opened it up to my close circle of friends so that they could please stop calling me up for "tips" or market directions , not that I am particularly good at giving any , at least in the early years.

Since implementing a password system to keep a private blog closed to outsiders is beyond my expertise and since accessing the blog via passwords is too much a chore for my friends as well , I have no choice but to keep the blog "quietly" open to the public.


Over the course of this blogging experiment  or journey , my writing style has evolved from writing for myself alone ( with its attendant freedom of writing on a beat  then erasing then rewriting or not write at all  for long periods at whim )  then to writing with my friends in mind ( with its attendant chore of making sure my words are not misconstrued and my intentions not mis-communicated inadvertently leading to financial distress for my friends but fortunately still with the flexibility or recourse to email or sms-ing them to ignore certain regretted posts or take corrective actions specific to their trade entries ) to finally writing with the faceless public half in mind ( where the choice of every word used has to be belabored upon and where an opinion once posted is cast in stone , cannot be regretted or removed even in the face of new damning evidence to the contrary and even if  a believing member of the faceless public , highly open to suggestion and unbeknown to me , makes a financial decision based on a regretted quarter- baked whimsical opinion of mine leading inexorably to his own financial ruin ) .


Naturally this evolution process is also a learning process with growing teething pains, it cannot be smooth , with fits and starts , sometimes not exactly sure  for whom or why I  put half baked private thoughts to print ,  with my style inadvertently reverting to its free primitive form of writing for myself or not at all at whim without any self-awareness or pangs of guilt , and it naturally has to do with my inability to continuously talk from  both sides of my mouth like any "endorsed" market guru could with great dexterity and without bad conscience through force of habit coupled with selective amnesia 选择性失忆( a cherry-picking marketing trick that makes hindsight looks like foresight and a  20/80 success rate looks  like 80/20  just like the selective flicker of stroboscopy can create the illusion of a wheel or fanblade rotate backwards against its actual direction of rotation  )   and my inability to sometimes forecast or determine critical turning points or price levels with the  prescience and precision and consistency that I desire but I feel it is getting better with time. 

Afterall  the ' black art ' of  market forecasting is subject to the throw of the dice and the (dis)qualifiers of  (in)delibrately unspecified time frame and  (un)known unknowns  , so the nebulous excuse of a bad market technician or analyst goes whenever his prediction goes awry a tad too many.  I can only hope it improves with time and focus. For that , I seek the readers' understanding.. for it is much easier to trade before a blog than to blog before a trade -- owing to the chaotic bifurcating possibilities of trajectory evolution in time to the same price objective which itself is subject to shifting sands of fundamental conditions in supply & demand as opposed to simply reacting to the flow of the tape without  any preconceived fear or favor  . To the above , I am sure Heisenberg & Soros, Sun Zi or even Karl Marx would agree - the act of loudly scrutinizing a phenomena has some impact on  the subsequent trajectory of the phenomena in action-reaction space  - be it quantum or social... fortunately, in large caps like big bluechips, and the Indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Index, this is not the case as my trading funds are far smaller than the market makers' to make a dent in the trajectory. 


Finally the legalistic portion of the disclaimer which I unabashedly adapted from a blog that is  popular with local traders  but is best read  off in rapidfire mode or like a broken record  : " you have the right  to remain oblivious to or freedom of choice not to read this private blog  ...  The purpose of this private blog is not intended to induce or promote any insider trading or manipulation activity. This private blog is meant for the sole purpose of education ( chiefly mine and my close group of friends & students  )  , discussion and knowledge sharing and is not intended for  public consumption.  Just to scare the public off,  certain posts or messages or chart annotations  might be encoded so that only my close friends or students may correctly  interpret to understand/ exploit to own advantage and any wrong interpretation of them may lead to financial ruin for the unknowing outsider who dutifully acts on them.   All charts and information can be obtained freely from the public internet. All analysis are based on my own personal view and years of experience. It should not be used as a decision to solicit buy/sell activity. Use all information at your own risk or discretion and practice "due diligence"  whatever that over-used cliche means in this poker game called the stock market.

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